As hurricane season ends, Hawaii forecasters are already worried about what next year will bring

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - As a kona low system moves across the state, the silver lining for the forecast is hurricane season officially comes to a close this week.

Hawaii saw four tropical cyclones develop this year, which is on point with forecasted projections.

However, 2023 provided a tragic and devastating reminder of what these storms are capable of, even when miles away from the state.

Winds from Hurricane Dora in August helped fuel the deadly Lahaina wildfires.

While Maui didn’t see a direct on-shore hit, its presence still played a role.

“We saw that with Celia in 2016 with loss of life from drowning because of the high surf,” said National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist John Bravender.

“We see that with Dora passing south with all the lives lost during the wildfires. You don’t have to be directly impacted by a hurricane to feel damage from it.”

As the 2023 hurricane season wraps up on Thursday, work has already begun to map out what we could see next year.

El Nino conditions marked by warmer ocean temperatures are on track to linger for months, which could signal a busy 2024.

“Usually that means a more active than normal season, this 2023 was average for us,” Bravender said. “We were expecting four to seven, we ended up with four. El Nino conditions are expected to continue through the winter and possibly into next spring at least, if not next summer.”

As for this week, the current Kona low is the first major storm of the wet season.

Critical timing as 93% of the state is experiencing drought; 62% of that at a severe level.

Long term, the hope is this wet period brings extended rainfall to provide relief.

“One rain event won’t fix the drought, but what we need is a steady prolonged rain to help recharge the ground,” Bravender said. “What we don’t want to see is intense heavy rainfall that just immediately goes to runoff and causes more flash flooding problems.”

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